DuckCurve In development
Coming soon

Forecast the
duck curve.

Price forecasting and spike alerts for traders, battery and VPP operators, and retailers on Australia's NEM. Built to prove itself in public: at launch, every forecast will be timestamped before its interval, then scored against AEMO's published price. In development now.

Forecasts scored in public, at launch Illustrative explainer AEMO-sourced day curve
NEM market surface
Verified feed pending

Today's NEM price curve.

Source: AEMO public NEM data Awaiting fresh snapshot Regional reference price (RRP), AUD/MWh, AEST. AEMO 5-minute dispatch actuals, then P5MIN and 30-minute pre-dispatch. Updated every 5 minutes.
DuckCurve NEM market surface A selected-region NEM price curve showing actual prices and AEMO pre-dispatch intervals for the current day.

Showing AEMO public data only. DuckCurve's own forecast is not public yet; it arrives with the scored ledger at launch.

At launch

How the public ledger will work.

The chart above is AEMO's public data. DuckCurve's product is the price forecasting; the public ledger is how it proves itself. At launch, every forecast will be published before its dispatch interval, then scored against AEMO's final dispatch price (RRP). Nothing is added or revised once the outcome is known, and the scoreboard stays public.

  1. Issued
    Timestamped before the dispatch interval it forecasts.
  2. Interval & region
    A NEM five-minute dispatch interval, per region from QLD1 to TAS1.
  3. DuckCurve forecast
    Our predicted RRP for that interval, in AUD/MWh.
  4. AEMO final RRP
    AEMO's published dispatch price for that interval, in AUD/MWh.
  5. Error & result
    Forecast minus actual, scored and kept on the public record.
Illustrative Issued 13:25 AEST QLD1 14:00 interval DuckCurve $NN forecast AEMO $NN final RRP Result forecast minus actual, scored

The scored DuckCurve forecast ledger arrives at launch. Today this page shows AEMO public data only.

Explainer · 4 min read

What is the
duck curve?

The duck curve is the daily shape grid operators see when net demand, the operational demand left after rooftop solar, is plotted across the hours. Rooftop solar floods the midday market and net demand collapses through the belly, then rebounds sharply at sunset for the evening peak. Australia, and South Australia in particular, runs one of the most extreme versions of this curve in the world.

Anatomy of the duck curve: an illustrative relative demand profile annotated through overnight off-peak, morning ramp, midday solar dip, evening peak, and shoulder hours
Demand -- at --

Where does the name come from?

Coined by California utility planners in the 2010s. The silhouette resembles a duck swimming left, with a head, neck, belly and tail.

Why is Australia's duck curve so extreme?

Australia has among the highest per-capita rooftop solar uptake in the world. In South Australia, rooftop solar can now meet the state's entire midday demand, regularly pushing wholesale prices below zero.

What does forecasting solve?

The steeper the ramp on either side of the belly, the more price exposure concentrates into a single dispatch interval.

Rooftop-solar, demand and price figures: AEMO and the Clean Energy Council.

Public ledger
Forecasts will be timestamped before the interval they predict.
No black-box scorekeeping after the fact.
Built for the NEM
Designed around NEM regions and dispatch intervals.
Live data and forecast results will be clearly separated from explainers.
Engineered for NEM desks
Product interfaces are being designed around repeatable verification.
APIs, alerts and scorecards ship only when the outputs can be trusted.

Want the public forecast ledger and spike alerts the day they go live?

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